NFL Spread Picks for Week 9: Why We Like the Lions vs. the Dolphins

After a turbulent start to the year, Detroit has started to show some fight on defense, giving the offense the production it needs to be a well-rounded unit to help chip away at Minnesota’s lead for first in the NFC North. With Miami on deck, the Lions will be able to build on their momentum while setting a scoring pace too fast for the Dolphins to keep up with.

NFL Spread Picks for Week 9

Detroit Lions (-7) vs. Miami Dolphins (-109, Caesars)

Since the start of the regular season, Jared Goff has been able to play at a high level, ranking in the top 10 in QB EPA per play. The protection Goff receives from his offensive line has played a major role in his hot start to the year, with the Lions' QB operating behind a front five that ranks near the top of the board in pass block set grade.

In a favorable matchup against the Miami Dolphins, Goff will be able to continue to air out the ball by picking apart a secondary that ranks 31st in dropback EPA allowed per play. With the Dolphins struggling to collapse the pocket, Goff will also have more time to go through his progressions, reducing the amount of havoc in his throws.

On the other side of the ball, the Lions ability to stuff the run with just the defensive line will allow the defense to drop linebackers in coverage, giving the secondary extra bodies to help defend against the pass. When the Dolphins are held to an early out, Detroit will be spotted with generous field position, leading to an uptick in the Lions' total number of scoring opportunities to help cover the spread.

Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers (+3) (-115, Hard Rock Bet)

At some point this season, the Denver Broncos are going to fall hard back down to reality. Not only has Bo Nix quietly ranked in the bottom ten in turnover-worthy play rate, but the ground game has been just as abysmal, plummeting to 21st in rush EPA per play.

With the Panthers' front seven residing in the top half of the board in rush success rate, Denver’s offense will be overly reliant on methodical drives, making the Broncos vulnerable to stalling out. If Carolina steams down to +2.5, bypass the spread and place the Panthers in a two-team six-point teaser with the Seattle Seahawks.

Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) vs. Washington Commanders (-115, Bet365)

At 4-4, the Los Angeles Rams' odds of making the playoffs have harshly declined while sitting one game back for the last wild-card spot in the NFC. Even with both sides of the ball ranking in the top 10 in DVOA, special teams has been a glaring issue for the Rams, bringing in far too much variance to win on a weekly basis.

Heading into Sunday’s contest against Washington, Matthew Stafford will be able to keep the offense ahead of the sticks to help avoid falling into a scoring lull by taking advantage of a secondary that ranks 23rd in dropback success rate. With the Commanders generating pressure at a below-league-average rate, the Rams' pass catchers will have more time in their routes to create space, widening Stafford’s passing lanes at multiple levels of the field.

On the other side of the ball, the Rams' back end being able to hold their own in single coverage will allow the linebackers to spy on the outside, neutralizing Jayden Daniels' legs before he gets out to the open field. When Daniels is stopped comfortably behind the line to gain on early downs, the Commanders' probability of converting declines, making it difficult to keep pace with the Rams.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears (-6) (-112, DraftKings)

While the offense has struggled to get into a groove, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defense has been able to keep the team competitive, ranking second in EPA allowed per play. The Bucs' heavy use of the blitz forces opposing QBs to get the ball out of their hands shortly after the snap, making them weave the ball through narrow windows.

Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, negative regression is looming large against the Chicago Bears with Caleb Williams capable of countering the blitz with his legs, leaving the Bucs thin on the back end while the secondary is scrambled in coverage. If Williams is able to keep the Bucs' linebackers anchored with his arm, D’Andre Swift will be able to consistently reach the second level of the defense, increasing his chances of creating an explosive run.